Montreal Analyst

The officers and directors of the listed stocks have again been very heavily to the sell side. Last week, they invested a total of slightly over $6 Million in stocks of their own companies. At the same time they sold over $212 Million in stocks of their own companies. That insider “buy to sell ratio” of one purchase to thirty five sales was seen in April of 2015 and again in October 2015. Historically as well, that is very high sell to buy level. Note well that soon following those huge sell to buy ratios, the U.S. stock market suffered harsh declines of approximately 15%. Thus we see this “insider”indicator as suggesting that the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials could soon see a downside correction of 15% or perhaps commence a bear market. We will soon see. This very negative now and without the manipulation that we have seen, the stock markets would never be at their present high levels. I must mention that one sector with solid insider buying over the last eighteen months is the MINING sector.  

We have said during the last two years that gold has been finishing making a major bottom that will lead into a long term bull market in gold bullion, silver and many mining stocks. We have studied cycles, fundamental valuations, the stock market’s effect as well as the regular and timely manipulation by the central banks and brokerage houses. Our conclusion view leaves little doubt that we are in a bull market…..finally.  Since 2014, we recommended gold mining stocks Richmont Mines, Claude Resources and NIogold. Richmont has moved up over 500%, Claude Resources has moved up over 700% and NIogold moved up over 100% as it was merged into Oban Mining.    However, we have mentioned before that there are approximately 900 to 1000 mining companies in North America with no comprehensive research coverage.That is the major problem that those companies must address.  We must keep in mind that “all the horses don’t leave the corral at the same time,” so many mining stocks have not and will not have substantial moves up yet.   If the bull market in gold lasts what our projection is-four years at least, it will be a very profitable time for those with the stomach to invest in the mining stocks. During the last two years some so called experts have said to wait until gold goes to $850 and to not invest until we get that “final bottom” that would allow investors to buy the shares at even cheaper levels than they have been selling at. It […]

   Two years ago I was with an analyst in Montreal and he mentioned that he had his gold bullion held in “safekeeping” at a company in Montreal. I immediately said ” let’s go over there now”   We went into the building and through the security and he got his gold “ingots.” I advised him to trust nobody but his wife and find a secure place to keep it.                                                           We have known for years that the banks and brokerages were manipulating gold prices for the primary reason to serve their own purposes, interests and profits-last in line has always been the best interests of the investing public.                               Through their manipulation of gold to the downside, they made enormous profits at the expense of the investing public and at the same time causing extraordinary damage to mining companies as well. Financing exploration when gold is selling at low prices is very difficult.   This past week in court in New York, the Deutsche Bank admitted its involvement in the manipulation of gold. The admission sends strong messages.  The first message is that the price of gold is not always where it should be but rather where it can best benefit the banks and brokerages by their manipulations. The Deutsche […]

 Our analysis suggests that we are in a bull market in gold, silver and many mining stocks. The brokerage industry will not and has not made any such forecast. Brokerage houses and banks will avoid acknowledging that gold is in a bull market since if gold is in a bull market, the industrial stock market such as the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 faces a bear market. It will not surprise us if gold moves down to as low as $1160 as anything can happen in this manipulated world of gold. The bottom is being finished but a shakeout is normal. .    

By  Harold AGJ Davis at www.prairiecropcharts.com in Winnipeg The global economy is on the edge a very difficult period with little prospect for recovery before 2017, but the situation is not without opportunity. As an election year, the American economy will benefit from the stimulus provided by the presidential and congressional campaigns that should soften the downturn, but the global economy may not be as fortunate. Cyclical forces are at work and the declining or end phase of the capital equipment cycle could be to blame.

Donald Trump said last week that now is a bad time to buy stocks. Is he right? Of course, we don’t know but our analysis suggests that the large cap stock market such as the Dow Jones and Standard and Poor’s 500 still face the strong possibility of  25% to 30% declines. But importantly, we can still also find hundreds if not thousands of stocks that are exceptionally undervalued on either earnings of asset value gauges.     

Is the global economy about to pass through the worst and set the stage for recovery? One interpretation of the Baltic Dry Freight Index suggests that, at least, the maritime shipping crisis is bottoming and recovery could begin to gradually build. Given that shipping problems reflect many of the same behaviours and fundamentals as the world economy; this may indicate that global growth will resurge and accelerate in 2017. 

AS MOST OF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN GOLD AND SILVER MINING STOCKS, A MAJOR OBSTACLE HAS BEEN THE FACT THAT THE LARGE CAP INDUSTRIAL STOCK MARKET (DOW INDUSTRIALS AND THE S&P 500) HAS NOT EXPERIENCED A BEAR MARKET WHILE THE MID-CAP AND SMALL CAP MARKETS HAVE. COMMODITIES MARKETS AND GOLD AND SILVER STOCKS GENERALLY HAVE BULLISH PERIODS WHEN THE LARGE CAP INDUSTRIAL STOCKS HAVE BEAR MARKETS. THE BROKERAGE  INDUSTRY FIGHTS ACKNOWLEDGING A BULL MARKET IN COMMODITIES AS BROKERAGE PROFITABILITY PLUNGES AND THERE IS NO WAY THAT THOSE PROFIT DECLINES CAN BE REPLACED BY THE SAME LEVELS OF  PROFITABILITY IN THE COMMODITIES MARKETS. The following article is from Doug Casey’s Daily Dispatch, a superb advisory service. The article is quite informative as so few are aware of the devious use and power of “buybacks” 

Old bond traders who cut their teeth in the high volatility vigilante days from 1979 to 1985 seem to have trouble understanding new wave, non-traditional monetary policy. Convinced that “It will end badly”, we have had a tendency to be bearish on the bond market since 30 year Treasury Bond yields first approached 4% back in 2003. More than a dozen years later, the death watch has grown old. Perhaps our classic training prevented us from seeing the situation and the charts clearly.

 For the first time, a technical indicator that has warned correctly in the past of an impending harsh bear market in large cap stocks has just signaled that the large capitalization S&P 500 will now commence its own bear market. Could the technical indicator be wrong? It could be; but historically, it indicates a 30% or more downside.