What is New on the Macro Level? By Hubert Marleau of Palos Mgt.
Inflation is here! A few weeks ago, we predicted that a point of inflation was possibly upon us and it was going to be reflected in the bond market. We suggested that the turning point was July 8, 2016. At that time, ten-year U.S. notes were trading at 1.35%, yields on tips were negative, gold was fetching $1,375 (15% more than it did a year ago), and consumer prices were less than 1% higher than the previous year. It appears we might be right. The headline CPI rose 0.3% between August and September, registering a year over year increase of 1.5% while core CPI was up 2.2% and running ahead of the Fed’s target rate of 2.0%.