“A Late Summer Night’s Scream,” a Bear Market (this time it’s different…?)
The most important elements in our forecasts and outlook are cycles. The cycles that are now occurring and will occur shortly project a harsh bear market for the stock market and a strong bull market for many commodities. For gold, silver, copper and mining oriented stocks, those cycles are positive. The fact is that if the cycles are correct, from the stock markets current valuation levels, it would indicate severe downside risk in the industrial stock market. In the summer of 2008 I was doing research in Montreal and wrote “A Midsummer Night’s Scream” as numerous fundamental, technical and cyclical indicators gave strong indications that we were heading to a severe bear market in most asset classes. On our former Canaminvestor site I wrote that “we might see the largest decline in asset values that the world had ever seen”….. we did! We had that brutal decline and central bank money was “pumped in to save the world’s financial system or so they say. Starting in 2004, for four years I watched the impending disaster develop in businesses, real estate, stock markets and would speak regularly with investment professionals in Montréal, Quebec City and New York. During that time I would speak to a highly regarded writer who was commenting on spending, politics and economics in his syndicated newspaper columns. I phoned him on occasion to compliment the profound accuracy of his columns and would give him my views. In 2010, while driving in upstate New York near Montréal I […]