Montreal Analyst

We believe that Canada and the United States are facing very difficult economic times that will affect the stock markets and inflation. It will not be pleasant. Overspending and paying too high prices for many stocks coupled with too much debt are the main culprits. They will take a harsh toll. Keep in mind that years ago the brokerage industry was created to offer a liquid market to buy and sell (invest) for the companies and for the investing public. However today it has been primarily for the benefit of the banks and the brokerages. Much has been lost due to that priority.  Generally, the research from the major brokerages was inaccurate and of poor quality. It was and has been primarily a sales tool. Few will admit that.   The officers and directors of the publicly traded companies in Canada and the U.S. are required to report any of their personal purchases and sales within three business days. Failure to report is a serious offence. While the graph in Barron’s for insider transactions seemed to be positive by its gauge of total transactions to be bullish for the market, Yet if we add up the dollar value for the transactions. It is extremely negative. Recently for the U.S. listed stocks there was a total value of $41,000,000 (forty-one million dollars) of insiders (officers and directors) purchasing their own companies’ shares!  Yet, that very same week, the insiders sold $309,000,000 (three hundred and nine million dollars) of their own companies’ […]

Market Pulse By STEPHEN LEEB • July 29, 2022 •  These days even the most stalwart investors likely are feeling somewhat seasick as market volatility continues. This volatility is a consequence of a market desperately seeking new guidelines for new times.For the first time ever, the Fed has had to confront inflation in the context of a world in which the long-term availability of food and energy is a question mark. In recent testimony before Congress, Fed Chair Powell said the Fed lacks the tools to deal with rising food and energy prices. That’s not strictly accurate, since with enough tightening, food and energy prices might decline. But Powell apparently recognizes the new reality that policies to keep commodities in check, while feasible in the recent past, would wreak devastation today. Getting to the longtime holy grail of two percent inflation would require measures that would inflict intolerable hardships, including major job losses. Longer term it would disincentivize creating a sustainable world. We don’t have all the answers. But we strongly suggest riding out the volatility with a focus on investments in commodities and in companies that can help solve today’s existential problems.

Bear Market  finally?  Things that we overlook cost us. All of the indicators that we use tell us the same sad  story,  expect to see a long brutal bear market coupled with a painful bear market for stocks. We try but have been unable to time the market as the central  banks have poured cash into the markets for support. Just examine the enormous out of control money supply growth! We are always invested and have never suggested selling everything.-just regularly taking some profits. We are and remain full time investors always looking for undervalued stocks. What has created the problem that will cause much anguish is blindly piling into the big brokerages primary recommendations that have created such ridiculously high overvaluations. That is done by necessity as adequate trading volume is sorely needed by the brokerage industry.  Volume in the many undervalued small cap and mid-cap stocks is and would be totally insufficient and cannot offer adequate liquidity. Sadly brokerage advice is dominated by what is popular not what is undervalued and again the brokerages’ need is to address volume for commissions and underwriting fees. Creating overvaluation such as we have seen eventually leads to long bear markets. it is occuring again in our opinion. We can only estimate (guesstimate) but our research suggests that now over 85% of the volume is institutional trading volume. That is not to say that the trading desks own 85% of the shares but rather do 85% of the volume. High Valuations?  Price to […]

VALUATIONS? The standard fundamental gauges clearly show that the stock markets are overvalued. For example: The market’s price to sales ratio is now 40% above the long term average high, that statistic indicates that if the total gross sales of all the S&P companies is compared to the stock market value; it is too high, not sustainable and it will eventually correct….…. EARNINGS…The price earning’s ratio for the S&P 500 is currently 23 times earnings…the long term average has been 16 times…so merely returning to the normal standard would be harsh…. We expect a decline of 30% to 40%! LACK OF LIQUIDITY….the stock markets offer limited liquidity. Getting “in and out” of positions (buying and selling) is often quite difficult for many stocks. THE VOLUME …. Few people understand that approximately 90% of the stock market volume is institutional volume. That is not to say that the ownership is 90% owned by traders but of the daily trading volume… INTEREST RATES ….They are artificially low and do not reflect the true cost of borrowing money and inflation. This is central bank engineered manipulation which is designed to keep the world economy from falling off a cliff. High interest rates would kill the stock market and lead into a long painful bear market. Rising rates would also badly damage the real estate market. OIL RISK… Trump made the US the major oil producer and helped keep world fuel prices low. But today the administration’s completely moronic decision to limit exploration and […]

An astrologer after having predicted the death of a woman with whom French king Louis XI was in love and who later did die as he (astrologer) had predicted was called in to see the monarch. “You sir, who foretell everything, when shall you die?” asked King Louis. The astrologer calmly replied “I shall die Sire three days before you your majesty.” His reply so shocked King Louis that he ordered a room to be given to the astrologer in one of his palaces for the rest of his life. The accuracy of our analysis has not been as effective as it has been in the past. Why? One reason is that because the markets are dominated by the fast trading funds that obscure the insiders personal buying and selling. It is now estimated that over 80% to 90% of the total market volume is trading focused volume (hedge funds et al) and no longer term investment volume. So huge volume traders are in fast and out fast. Don’t get us wrong here. There are always many hundreds if not thousands of stocks that are exceptionally undervalued and merit attention. The problem is that when most stocks are down in price and offer opportunities for exceptional capital gains, few take advantage; that will never change. Note well that the world’s central banks are huge, regular and often frequent buyers in the stock market. Notice that the money supply growth has recently been so large that in our opinion, it has […]

For many years we have analyzed the daily reported “buys and sells” of the officers and directors (insiders) of the US and Canadian stocks to help determine if the stocks could be undervalued or overvalued. As you know, the officers and directors are required to report within two business days any of their purchases or sales of their own companies’ shares.  It is illegal not to report any transactions. The accuracy of our analysis recently has not been as effective as it has been in the past. Why? Because the markets are dominated by the fast trading funds that can obfuscate the insiders personal buying and selling. It is now estimated that over eighty percent of the market volume is trading oriented volume and not true investment volume. So traders are in fast and out fast. Overall, we used the largest twenty buys and sells for two weeks ago and it was not positive, rather it was alarming, In the largest twenty transactions, the insiders bought a total of approximately $37 million in dollar value of their own companies’ stocks; and for the same period they sold $622 million in dollar value of their own personally held shares in their own companies’ stocks. So for one purchase there were 16 sales…….Negative! And again last week there were no positive indications from the “insiders”. The most informed of all investors merely purchased approximately $79 million in dollar value, while for the same period; they sold $524 million in dollar value of their own shares. So we have six […]

                  Gold Analysis is not like mathematics or engineering and can be very mentally debilitating. Two plus two doesn’t equal four most of the time, often it equals three, then seven, then ten. Truly and above all, investing in precious metals demands patience. American founding father, scientist and brilliant inventor Benjamin Franklin stated in 1760 that ‘“he that has patience will have it all.” Yet, most investors cannot tolerate the brutal volatility and sharp price declines that occur in the precious metals and the metals stocks. Is gold in a bull market? Yes it is and it has been since its bottom in 2013. However, it depends on which companies’ we are talking about. Some gold mining and exploration companies’ shares have had moves up in price from 50% to over 900%-and more during the last eight years. In our opinion & based upon our analysis, we foresee a larger more encompassing bull market in the precious stocks is commencing.  Most juniors (small exploration companies) have languished. But it depends on what is included in the bull market as most have not moved to the degree that could be designated as in a bull market. The fact is that most exploration companies do not have nor have reported sufficient resources/reserves to justify them as being more than mere speculations….Yet for years the largest returns for investors have been in the junior exploration companies that reported excellent exploration results. The fact is that most brokerage recommendations are made long after […]

Points on Gold and Gold/Silver stocks…..be aware! Posted on July 15, 2021 | By KCGrainger on www.Canadianmineanalysis.com  1-Do we have a valid “bull market” in precious metals and the metals stocks?   Yes, but we have had a “bull market” for six to seven years in many precious metals stocks and base metals stocks as well yet many have continued to be in a bear market. Some of our stocks have moved up from 100% to 1000%…many are up 300% to 400% and much more.  But we must keep in mind that many have not moved- except down and many will later fail. We generally expect a large percentage of our choices to fail. However by choosing carefully, the successes more than make up for the failures. 2-Are the metals such as Gold and Silver still being manipulated?    Yes, they are primarily manipulated by the professionals; on some days we have seen futures trades that would be equal to more than one month’s world production in gold done in minutes. Keep in mind that they were in reality “paper” trades and not true gold bullion. 3-Are the fundamentals for the metals positive? Yes, Yes, Yes!                                                                                           The demand statistics (contrasting the available supply of gold bullion and silver too)are overwhelmingly strong. We will explain this later with statistics. 4-In 1997 the average industry cost to find one ounce of gold was approximately $12 per ounce, and today the average industry cost is approximately $110 per ounce. Thus Gold is now more difficult and far more expensive to find as well. 5-The […]

 1-Do we now have a true “bull market” in precious metals and the precious metals stocks ?                  Yes, but we have had a “bull market” for six to seven years in many precious metals stocks and base metals stocks as well and many have continued to be in a bear market. Some of our stocks have moved up from 100% to 1000%…many are up 300% to 400%.  But we must keep in mind that many have not moved= except down and many will fail. We generally expect a minimum of half of our choices to fail. 2-Are the metals such as Gold and Silver still being manipulated?                                                                 Yes they are primarily by the professionals; some days we have seen futures trades that would be equal to more than one month’s world production in gold done in minutes. Keep in mind that they were in reality “paper” trades and not true gold bullion. 3-Are the fundamentals for the metals positive? Yes, Yes, Yes!                                                                                           The demand statistics (contrasting the available supply of gold bullion and silver too)are overwhelmingly strong. We will explain this later with statistics. 4-In 1997 the average industry cost to find one ounce of gold was approximately $12 per ounce, and today the average industry cost is approximately $110 per ounce. Gold is now much more difficult and far more expensive to find as well. 5-The brokerages and the banks do not want a bull market in gold/precious metals to occur as it brings with it a […]