I cannot express how saddened I was to get the phone call Saturday afternoon telling me that Dickie Moore had passed away Saturday morning. My contact with Dickie began in 2005 when I asked a friend I had worked with on the Montreal Stock Exchange to suggest someone for an interview; I needed a respected Quebec business person for an opinion on the economy and business. He suggested that I call Dickie Moore, the retired Montreal Canadiens’ star left winger and member of the Hockey Hall of Fame. A star? Dickie led the National Hockey League in scoring twice and won six Stanley Cups with the Canadiens.

Cycles should now be a dominant factor in attempting to project the direction of the markets. Many market studies have shown that cycles are more important than fundamentals, particularly for long term forecasts. Note well that when cycles are occurring with business and economic fundamental conditions that seem to match the cycles’ projections, the cycles are even more effective in their ability to forecast market conditions.

Business television’s major mistake? Little quality technical analysis & too many poor stock picks. A much respected “Wall Street Week” panelist telephoned me in the late nineties in New York. He had seen the performance of my on-air stock recommendations made on Business Television and was so impressed that he recommended me for consideration as the senior stock analyst at a rather expensive stock investment service.

We see 2016 being a good year for the U.S. equity markets, but not a great one (or a flat one). Below are the historical , economic, and fundamental considerations contributing to this outlook. Historical Perspective ·         A good year usually follows a flat one: Since WWII, there have been 10 times that the S&P 500 rose or fell by less than 3% in any calendar year. In the subsequent year, it gained an average 12.8% and rose in price 80% of the time. Only in 1947-48 was one flat year followed by another flat year.