Gold! Chapter One! The bottom is in……..finally ! Our analysis says it is in……

 It has been long wait. While many gold and silver mining stocks have already made their multi-year price bottoms during the last two years, the recent price action has indicated to me that the final bottom has been completed. If all the conclusions of my technical analysis and cyclical analysis are correct, yes, we are now finished completing the bottoms in gold and the gold (and silver) mining stocks.

A major piece has fallen into place with the U.S. Dollar apparently making its top which has been in progress since May 2015. One specific technical indicator that I use has given me a clear signal for months that the dollar’s ride up is nearly over.

I have said before that if there had not been the major manipulation of the price of gold such as the “midnight sales” of paper gold during periods of inactive markets so as to “paint the tape,” the price of gold bullion would probably be somewhere between U.S. $1400 and $1500 an ounce. Keep in mind that certain central bankers have colluded to keep gold down.  

And….if the all gold that was held in “safekeeping” (imagine calling it “safekeeping???) required delivery  in a timely manner, in my opinion the price of gold bullion would be near U.S. $2000 an ounce.

Technical and cyclical analysis, Supply/demand, costs of production, officers and directors buying mining shares, no expansion of gold production, less exploration success and a bear market in most industrial stocks among many things contribute to my major bottom conclusion.

Again, keep in mind that many, yes many, mining companies have already made their price bottoms over the last two years.  

 To think that one will be able “load up’ with all the gold stocks as they fall out of bed for the last time borders on delusional. In many stocks there are very few offerings of any size. Many will try to buy them at the low prices and find that the train will have left the station.

*The greatest importance is that the major cycles are suggesting that gold will commence a long bull market soon.Other historical and often accurate cycles suggest that the industrial stock markets are in the process of suffering  long bear markets. (Yet, there are and will be numerous industrial (non-mining) stocks that will perform superbly.) Bear markets are often the best time for investors to accumulate stocks-while they are on sale. Gold mining stocks have been on sale with very few taking advantage of it. Human nature-that’s the way it always is and always has been.

Expect no positive advice on gold from the major brokerage houses, particularly the U.S. ones. They are incapable of offering good advice on gold.  The fact is that a positive market in gold and most commodities brings with it a bear market in industrial stock such as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials.

Brokerages profitability declines dramatically during bull markets in gold. When the mining stocks that are going to do well (many will not) do perform well, the brokerage industry might recommend some of them, but only well after they have already had tremendous moves up in their prices. They never fail do they?

Key point: The vast majority of mining stocks have no comprehensive research coverage. Research has heavily declined and will continue. ( I know that some of you are thinking it was generally garbage anyway.) However, many investors and independents do excellent in-depth analysis themselves and in most cases do it far better than most brokerage house analysts.