Quick view! Stock market, Gold market…

We have warned of decline…26% or so, will it be an Opportunity?

For the last two years the S&P 500  stock market should have faced declines of at least 20% to be followed by rallies up again. That would have prevented the exceptional overvaluation that the market has been carrying today; it will soon be paid for Let’s just review some of the gauges that have a history of accuracy.

Investors and above all major brokerage houses have little use and and  dislike for cyclical anacontempt for “technical analysis” and dislike cyclical analysis. Why? It often tells people that the stock market is overvalued headed down or worse yet that their own stocks are overvalued and heading for large declines. The major brokerage houses do not want technical analysis because it advises at times that stocks are overvalued and better buying opportunities will happen later! It limits business and commissions. Brokerages fight bearish news despite the fact that it is often quite accurate-it interferes with business.

First: Our view remains the same, the large cap stock market overall  decline in the 25% to 30% range for the Standard and Poor’s 500 is in the works, some stocks more, some stocks less.

The weight of the evidence has been overwhelming that a major decline is coming. LOOK BACK AT WHAT WE HAVE WRITTEN ON THIS SITE FOR THE LAST YEAR…..Major distribution (topping process) has been ongoing; but keep in mind that it badly interferes with some peoples’ business to alert the public; so the public is not alerted……until after the fact with excuses!

The promoters and major brokerage houses have promoted and enabled the stock market to hit EXTREMELY OVERVALUED PRICE LEVELS. THEY NEVER INFORMED INVESTORS THAT OFFICERS AND DIRECTORS OF THE PUBLICLY TRADED CORPORATIONS WERE SELLING THEIR OWN PERSONALLY OWNED SHARES AT NEAR RECORD HIGH RATES. Some weeks in 2015 saw the officers and directors selling over $5 hundred million ($500,000,000) of their own shares one week with other weeks near the same levels of “insiders dumping” their own shares. Recently, heavy selling continues with little insider buying.

Warning! The value of the all stocks in the stock market to Gross Domestic Product is over 140% which has always led to brutal bear markets in the past-every time. Plus the recent Corporate “buybacks” totaling $1,300,000,000,000 ($1.3 trillion) have added in our view 10% to 15% upside-it’s all artificial.

Due to near zero interest rates and artificial support brought about by central banks buying stocks aided and abetted by high frequency trading and “central bank buying intervention in the stock markets”, the market avoided what would have been beneficial opportunistic moves down to better value levels offering far better buying opportunities. Note, we are invested but always are looking for opportunities.

What people overlook is the fact that brutal corrections in stocks and bear markets can and do provide so many opportunities to accumulate shares when they are “on sale.”  Few  take advantage…ever…..You cannot change human nature. I might add that there are numerous stocks that are now at very undervalued prices. Gold stocks have been literally given away recently-few ever take advantage.  

And as for the major cycles? Several major cycles going back years project that the stock market faces a long harsh painful bear market. The cycles, which in my opinion may be more important than fundamentals, suggest that we are in the early stages of a long bear market for industrial stocks such as the Dow Jones and Standard and Poor’s 500. But for the good news, the major cycles suggest that we are beginning a new bull market in gold and mining stocks…..Yes, a major bull market in gold.