One month ago, we reported that insider selling reached $450 million daily in August, the highest level this year; on a monthly basis, insiders sold more than $10 billion of their stock, the most of any month this year and near the most on record. “As corporate buying is at least taking a breather, corporate insiders are ramping up share selling as the major U.S. stock market averages are at or near record highs,” TrimTabs wrote in a note. One month later, TrimTabs is out with a follow up monthly report which finds even more of the same: according to the investment research company, the “best-informed market participants” are selling their own stocks at the fastest pace in September in the past decade, even as stock buyback announcements have hit record levels. Corporate insiders have sold an average of $400 million daily in September through Friday, September 21, TrimTabs founds, adding that this month’s volume of $5.7 billion is already the highest in any September in the past decade. Of course this comes at a time of record corporate stock buybacks, resulting in a perverse loops in which insiders dumping near record amount of stock to their own, far less informed, shareholders. “While insiders are selling hard with their own money, they’ve committed record amounts of shareholders’ money to prop up stock prices this year,” said David Santschi, Director of Liquidity Research at TrimTabs Investment Research. Indeed, stock buyback announcements by U.S. public companies have already reached $827.4 billion in […]

Let’s say it again, bull markets do not end due to overvaluation. They generally end with interest rates rising, often with a decline in the money supply or recession. But again dangerous market tops are usually accompanied by overvaluation and euphoria. Are we seeing overvaluation now?  We think so.          We see high risk in many popular and highly recommended stocks. Opportunities for capital gains are always present in many stocks but far too many “popular” stocks are being recommended by the so called experts at the very high end of their valuation and price ranges. It violates the standby rule to focus on what is undervalued and not what is popular. Many of the best performing stocks are now selling at extremely high valuations. That always ends sadly.    INSIDER SELLING… Last week, we saw what was the largest dollar value total of “insiders” who are the officers and directors selling their own personally held shares in the companies where they are employed. It was by far the largest total dollar value of sales. Their stock sales totaled an astounding value of $1,174,371,122 (over one billion dollars worth) while buying was slightly over $31 million in dollar value…. quite a contrast. These insider sell levels in the past have in the past concurrent with the beginning of what led into brutal bear markets and declines of 32% to 40%.    The value of publicly traded U.S. stocks to U.S. Gross Domestic Production is now over 143%. While not a “timing signal,” brutal bear markets […]

This is a very negative indicator for the direction of the stock market. It is not a “timing indicator” but rather suggests that when and if the stock market does enter a bear phase, it will go down far more than normal. Historically it was a very good timing indicator, but lately it has not been.   Last week insiders (the officers and directors) sold $690,896,754 worth of their own (personally owned shares) companies’ shares. That is the third largest total that we have seen reported over the last fifteen years. At the same time they bought slightly over $63,012,466 of their own companies’ shares. The brokerage industry and the companies themselves do not want to see these sell numbers publicized for obvious reasons as they send out very bearish warnings that can discourage the public from investing. Again, insiders are unloading their own shares at a very high rate in terms of  dollar value. Few investors pay attention to this indicator-we do.

    NAPOLEON BONAPARTE… Napoleon Bonaparte once advised to “never interfere with an enemy when he is making a mistake.” Some gold companies’ shareholders may now be making serious mistakes by selling shares in stocks that they have lost patience with; yet that is normal at low prices. They might ask themselves “who is buying?” as there is a strong possibility that they are giving away undervalued stocks at very low prices. It may prove to be a serious mistake as incredible bargains in gold stocks occur at price lows. Today value oriented investors can find many companies that are exceptionally undervalued on the basis of various valuation gauges. Our analysis suggests that we are about to commence further price moves up in Gold, Silver, mining and exploration stocks. Many of them should move up to price levels that will amaze investors. Because there is so little comprehensive research coverage for most metals companies, many remain undervalued. The coming price moves up in the precious metals stocks’ prices should far exceed investors’ expectations.   Cycles…Maybe the most important ingredient of all Cycles can be very extremely useful when trying to make timing decisions. It is important for investors to recognize that several important cycles are projecting that Gold should soon have a large move up….very large. At the same time, several cycles forecast bad times for the industrial stock market. ……and very bearish times coming for industrial stocks which is positive for gold, silver, mining shares and hard assets.

If we use every major gauge of  historic valuation for this stock market,  it faces what would be a normal decline of 35% to 40% from the recent top. As the old time New York Yankees manager Casey Stengel would often say…”you can look it up.” Those gauges are the total value of the stock market to Gross Domestic Product; Stock Sales by officers and directors; price to sales ratio for the overall stock market (at its’ highest ever!) among other indicators suggesting that investors take some profits and wait for cheaper buying opportunities or look for stocks that are undervalued.  Sure, for several years we have suggested that 20% plus market declines should have occurred to be followed by rallies back up. Those interim corrections would have prevented the stock market from carrying such dangerous overvaluation today and offered investors opportunties to invest when stocks are undervalued and “on sale.” Moreover, it does not help the situation that much of the business media act like bench jockeys constantly rooting the stock market up to overvalued levels yet rarely ever suggesting taking some profits.  But why do stock market periods of severe overvaluation occur? Often because the brokerage and investment industry need activity, commissions  and business volume. Those industries cannot survive on prudence, low volume and patient value investing. The activity meter must be kept running. Manipulation has fed the upmoves along with the central banks buying stocks. But that overvaluation now faces a stark reality. That reality is that […]

Posted on March 1, 2018 | By KCGrainger | No comments,   From www.Canadianmineanalysis.com We are about to commence a major bull market in Gold, Silver, mining and exploration stocks. Many of them should move up to price levels that will astonish investors. Because there is very little comprehensive research coverage for most precious metals companies, many remain overlooked and undervalued. The oncoming price moves up in the precious metals shares’ prices should be far above investor expectations. INDICATORS? If our eight indicators are correct, we are about to begin a full-fledged bull market in precious metals and many of the mining and exploration stocks. Yes, we have had an early stage bull market in some gold and commodities stocks which already carried some gold stocks up 800% and more (examples: Canadians Richmont, Claude Resources, Niogold-all taken over). NAPOLEON BONAPARTE… Napoleon Bonaparte once advised to “never interfere with an enemy when he is making a mistake.”  Some gold companies’ shareholders may be making a mistake by selling shares in stocks that they have lost patience with which is normal in a bear market. They should ask themselves “who is buying?” The mistake is that there is a very strong possibility that they are giving away undervalued stocks at very low prices. It may prove to be a big mistake as bargains occur during bear markets. When the frustrated selling shareholder says “just get me out of this stock” a value investor may say “what a great opportunity the seller and the weak metals market have given me.”  Price weakness offers value investors opportunities to invest […]

We have seen the initial stage of a bull market in gold and other hard asset commodities which beginning in 2015 has already carried some small to mid cap gold stocks up 800% and more. But the majority of mining and exploration stocks have languished. Yet at the same time experienced shrewd investors have been accumulating the mining shares. The price weakness has  offered patient value oriented investors opportunities to accumulate mining shares while they are exceptionally cheap. Keep this in mind, “He who has patience will have it all” a quote of Benjamin Franklin. Our analysis now suggests a move into the $1400 to $1500 (US Dollars) which will bring with it an enormous move up in many gold, silver and exploration stocks. Our analysis, which includes fundamental, technical  and cyclical analysis has never been this positive. Yes, the banksters may continue with their manipulation of gold bullion but that game should end soon. Bon conseil  We want to thank our mining investor friends Claude Lemire, Ray Langevin, Louis Baribeau, David Crevier , Philippe Cloutier and Peter Cashin for their advice and input, What have we waited for?  One thing is the need for a bear market in the industrial stocks which we almost require to have a bull market in gold and mining stocks. What is the one most important ingredient today for a bull market in gold?  We have said it time and again; we need a lower value in the US Dollar to have a bull market in gold. We […]

  The Prudent Man Rule has defined fiduciary responsibility in the United States since 1830, but it could it overwhelmed by commercial considerations in 2018. Wikipedia provides a quick summary of the rule as directing trustees “to observe how men of prudence, discretion and intelligence manage their own affairs, not in regard to speculation, but in regard to the permanent disposition of their funds, considering the probable income, as well as the probable safety of the capital to be invested.”

Sirios Resources,… QMX Gold Corporation,   Cartier Resources and  Imperial Mining Group are four Canadian exploration companies that by our analyses, particularly while at low prices, merit our attention. One might consider that we have seen an early stage bull market in some mining stocks already. However, if our indications are correct, we are about to commence a major bull market in many gold and mineral stocks. Mineral exploration is challenging but each of the following companies has excellent potential as well as quality managements and directors with long histories of success.