Our analysis suggests that we are in a bull market in gold, silver and many mining stocks. The brokerage industry will not and has not made any such forecast. Brokerage houses and banks will avoid acknowledging that gold is in a bull market since if gold is in a bull market, the industrial stock market such as the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 faces a bear market. It will not surprise us if gold moves down to as low as $1160 as anything can happen in this manipulated world of gold. The bottom is being finished but a shakeout is normal. .    

By  Harold AGJ Davis at www.prairiecropcharts.com in Winnipeg The global economy is on the edge a very difficult period with little prospect for recovery before 2017, but the situation is not without opportunity. As an election year, the American economy will benefit from the stimulus provided by the presidential and congressional campaigns that should soften the downturn, but the global economy may not be as fortunate. Cyclical forces are at work and the declining or end phase of the capital equipment cycle could be to blame.

Donald Trump said last week that now is a bad time to buy stocks. Is he right? Of course, we don’t know but our analysis suggests that the large cap stock market such as the Dow Jones and Standard and Poor’s 500 still face the strong possibility of  25% to 30% declines. But importantly, we can still also find hundreds if not thousands of stocks that are exceptionally undervalued on either earnings of asset value gauges.     

Is the global economy about to pass through the worst and set the stage for recovery? One interpretation of the Baltic Dry Freight Index suggests that, at least, the maritime shipping crisis is bottoming and recovery could begin to gradually build. Given that shipping problems reflect many of the same behaviours and fundamentals as the world economy; this may indicate that global growth will resurge and accelerate in 2017. 

AS MOST OF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN GOLD AND SILVER MINING STOCKS, A MAJOR OBSTACLE HAS BEEN THE FACT THAT THE LARGE CAP INDUSTRIAL STOCK MARKET (DOW INDUSTRIALS AND THE S&P 500) HAS NOT EXPERIENCED A BEAR MARKET WHILE THE MID-CAP AND SMALL CAP MARKETS HAVE. COMMODITIES MARKETS AND GOLD AND SILVER STOCKS GENERALLY HAVE BULLISH PERIODS WHEN THE LARGE CAP INDUSTRIAL STOCKS HAVE BEAR MARKETS. THE BROKERAGE  INDUSTRY FIGHTS ACKNOWLEDGING A BULL MARKET IN COMMODITIES AS BROKERAGE PROFITABILITY PLUNGES AND THERE IS NO WAY THAT THOSE PROFIT DECLINES CAN BE REPLACED BY THE SAME LEVELS OF  PROFITABILITY IN THE COMMODITIES MARKETS. The following article is from Doug Casey’s Daily Dispatch, a superb advisory service. The article is quite informative as so few are aware of the devious use and power of “buybacks” 

Old bond traders who cut their teeth in the high volatility vigilante days from 1979 to 1985 seem to have trouble understanding new wave, non-traditional monetary policy. Convinced that “It will end badly”, we have had a tendency to be bearish on the bond market since 30 year Treasury Bond yields first approached 4% back in 2003. More than a dozen years later, the death watch has grown old. Perhaps our classic training prevented us from seeing the situation and the charts clearly.

 For the first time, a technical indicator that has warned correctly in the past of an impending harsh bear market in large cap stocks has just signaled that the large capitalization S&P 500 will now commence its own bear market. Could the technical indicator be wrong? It could be; but historically, it indicates a 30% or more downside.

Claude Lemire was a founder and later president of the very successful Canagex Placements, a $14 billion Montreal based money management firm that was later acquired. Claude does his own fundamental research and technical analysis. Over the years, he has found the majority of major brokerage research to be untimely and inaccurate. His preference has always been independent research services that he feels offer more quality advice. His focus has always been the many “overlooked and undervalued companies” that the brokerage houses fail to follow until they are much higher in price.

We want to emphasize that we are always nearly fully invested in stocks representing either industrial stocks or in commodities related stocks. Unlike many, we emphasize that profits when made, should be taken which too few investors do. We believe that whether we are in a bull market or bear market, there are always tremendous opportunities for exceptional capital gains in both industrial stocks and commodities related stocks. Key point: Bear markets offer investors superb opportunities for exceptional capital gains as stocks are literally “on sale.”

 The MontrealAnalyst.com finds that Harold Davis of www.prairiecropcharts.com in Winnipeg creates accurate and timely research focusing on the world commodities’ markets. We should keep in mind that strong commodities markets usually occur with negative industrial stock markets!  “Chartists like to say “the bigger the base, the bigger the rise”.  Judging by the extent of base building over the past eighteen months, wheat, corn and soybeans could enter major bull markets within the next year.