While this outlook is negative, I want to emphasize that there are thousands of overlooked and undervalued stocks in North America that offer exceptional opportunities for substantial capital gains. My technical and cyclical analysis suggests that the overall stock market faces more downside. As usual, excuses will be made and finger pointing will ensue.  

Originally posted on www.Canadianmineanalysis.com February 4, 2015  It has been long wait. While many gold and silver mining stocks have already made their multi-year price bottoms during the last two years, the recent price action has indicated to me that the final bottom has been completed. If all the conclusions of my technical analysis and cyclical analysis are correct, yes, we are now finished completing the bottoms in gold and the gold (and silver) mining stocks. A major piece has fallen into place with the U.S. Dollar apparently making its top which has been in progress since May 2015. One specific technical indicator that I use has given me a clear signal for months that the dollar’s ride up is nearly over. I have said before that if there had not been the major manipulation of the price of gold such as the “midnight sales” of paper gold during periods of inactive markets so as to “paint the tape,” the price of gold bullion would probably be somewhere between U.S. $1400 and $1500 an ounce. Keep in mind that certain central bankers have colluded to keep gold down.   And….if the all gold that was held in “safekeeping” (imagine calling it “safekeeping???) required delivery  in a timely manner, in my opinion the price of gold bullion would be near U.S. $2000 an ounce. Technical and cyclical analysis, Supply/demand, costs of production, officers and directors buying mining shares, no expansion of gold production, less exploration success and a bear market in […]

About fifteen years ago, Harold AGJ Davis and I were working in Montreal examining charts of the U.S. Dollar. Our conclusion was that it was forming a major top. Harold had noticed several “telling” indicators in the dollar’s chart. I have my own specific technical indicator that confirmed what Harold had noted in his technical analysis. My indicator, which has been quite “illuminating” and timely now has been suggesting a U.S. Dollar top being made since last April.

Originally posted on October 9, 2015 on Canadianmineanalysis.com There certainly can be value; we get that question all the time. If a gold exploration common stock is selling at pennies, investors ask as to “how can there be any value in that stock?” The answer is that there can be exceptional value in many stocks selling for near a “nickel” or less. Many exploration companies and “juniors” are remarkably undervalued based on the basis of what they own in mineral reserves and resources as well as later earnings potential basis. Moreover, one can find many companies including junior exploration companies with large cash positions. Suffice it to say, it depends on what a gold company has or can find efficiently. We should also mention that the major brokerage houses in North America do not want to see a bull market in gold or the commodities markets. History shows that when there is a bull market in commodities at the same time you cannot have a bull market in the industrial stocks such as the Dow Jones Industrials.

Some investors and above all major brokerage houses have little use and contempt for “technical analysis” and even greater dislike for cyclical analysis. Why? It often tells people what they don’t want to hear such as the stock market is overvalued headed down or worse yet that their own stocks are overvalued and heading for large declines. Brokerage houses do not want technical analysis because it advises at times that stocks are overvalued and better buying opportunities will happen later! Waiting entails no business in the meantime…so read between the lines.Our view remains the same, an overall  decline in the 25% to 30% range for the Standard and Poor’s 500, some stocks more, some stocks less. We will attempt to inform you when the decline is over, for years we were quite good at it. The weight of the evidence has been overwhelming that a major decline was coming. LOOK BACK AT WHAT WE HAVE WRITTEN ON THIS SITE FOR THE LAST YEAR…..Major distribution (topping process) has been ongoing; but keep in mind that it badly interferes with some peoples’ business to alert the public; so the public is not alerted……until after the fact with excuses! The promoters and major brokerage houses have promoted and enabled the stock market to hit EXTREMELY OVERVALUED PRICE LEVELS. THEY NEVER INFORMED INVESTORS THAT OFFICERS AND DIRECTORS OF THE PUBLICLY TRADED CORPORATIONS WERE SELLING THEIR OWN PERSONALLY OWNED SHARES AT NEAR RECORD HIGH RATES. Some weeks in 2015 saw the officers and directors selling […]

Disequilibria and risk from the international economy In 2016 we find two conditions present that put markets at risk. One is that policymakers have the wrong model of how the world works. In plying policy under misunderstood conditions markets will be at risk.

If we look back at athletic stars of the past, we often find some very interesting and educational  anecdotal stories. Unlike most people, professional athletes’ lives involve constant traveling and meeting people in all professions. One interesting story was told to me by Arthur Mercante, the famous boxing referee and member of the Boxing Hall of Fame. The story was funny but quite profound as well.

                  I cannot express how saddened I was to get the phone call Saturday afternoon telling me that Dickie Moore had passed away Saturday morning. My contact with Dickie began in 2005 when I asked a friend I had worked with on the Montreal Stock Exchange to suggest someone for an interview; I needed a respected Quebec business person for an opinion on the economy and business. He suggested that I call Dickie Moore, the retired Montreal Canadiens’ star left winger and member of the Hockey Hall of Fame. A star? Dickie led the National Hockey League in scoring twice and won six Stanley Cups with the Canadiens.

Cycles should now be a dominant factor in attempting to project the direction of the markets. Many market studies have shown that cycles are more important than fundamentals, particularly for long term forecasts. Note well that when cycles are occurring with business and economic fundamental conditions that seem to match the cycles’ projections, the cycles are even more effective in their ability to forecast market conditions.

Business television’s major mistake? Little quality technical analysis & too many poor stock picks. A much respected “Wall Street Week” panelist telephoned me in the late nineties in New York. He had seen the performance of my on-air stock recommendations made on Business Television and was so impressed that he recommended me for consideration as the senior stock analyst at a rather expensive stock investment service.