We see 2016 being a good year for the U.S. equity markets, but not a great one (or a flat one). Below are the historical , economic, and fundamental considerations contributing to this outlook. Historical Perspective ·         A good year usually follows a flat one: Since WWII, there have been 10 times that the S&P 500 rose or fell by less than 3% in any calendar year. In the subsequent year, it gained an average 12.8% and rose in price 80% of the time. Only in 1947-48 was one flat year followed by another flat year.

Comprehensive analysis requires monitoring of the “buys and sells” of the officers and directors personally owned shares. The bottom line is that they are the most informed of investors as they happen to work at the companies!

Our forecast still projects a 25% to 30% decline from the stock market high. The major difficulty in forecasting is such low interest rates which are artificial and eventually must end. Even if a severe decline does occur, there are so many stocks today that are overlooked and incredibly undervalued; they have already suffered harsh declines.

 In recent months, the Federal Reserve has been signalling the impending end of their ultra-accommodative monetary policy. While that eventuality is understandable, they may have picked the wrong time.

   The bear market in the Canadian dollar has passed its period of maximum pessimism, and important bottoming action should begin soon.   Over the last four years, the Canadian dollar has been deteriorating at an ever steeper slope. Bearishness has fed upon itself and the result has been a curvilinear descent that has become so steep that the summary trend line is almost vertical. Everybody is now familiar with the perils of a resourced based economy during a period of moribund global growth.

THE NORMAL STOCK MARKET PERIODS OF 20% OR SO CORRECTIONS HAVE BEEN “PUT OFF” BY THE CORPORATE BUYBACKS COUPLED WITH NEAR ZERO INTEREST RATES. HISTORICALLY, SEVERE CORRECTIONS AND EVEN BEAR MARKETS OFFER TREMENDOUS OPPORTUNITIES TO INVEST WHILE STOCKS ARE “ON SALE.”  BECAUSE OF THE ABUSE OF THE “BUYBACKS,” WE WILL SOON SEE THE “PAYBACKS’ THAT MANY OF  THOSE  “BUYBACK” COMPANIES’ STOCKS WILL HAVE TO ENDURE.

In analyzing smaller companies, in particular those that have not yet achieved commercial success, comprehensive analysis requires attentive monitoring of the “buys and sells” of the officers and directors personally owned shares. Yes, their personally owned shares! We comment below on the notable amount of shares bought by the officers and directors of Cartier Resources, Niogold Mining and Yorbeau Resources.

In his more than four decades of successful financial management, Claude Lemire has seen it all; perhaps too much at times. Claude was a founder and later president of the very successful Canagex Placements, a $14 billion Montreal based money management firm that was later acquired.

Best “guessestimates” seem to point to an expenditure of over $5,000,000,000.00++ ( that’s (5) FIVE BILLION++$$$) by the various candidates seeking the Presidency of these United States of America and screams for the following comments and observations, not only from this observer but all Americans ( readers will certainly have many, many more of their own to add)

By Harold AGJ Davis   27 September 2015,  Author and Analyst at www.prairiecropcharts.com A period of low cost commodities is not beginning, it is about to end. Although many commodity prices entered bear markets following major tops back in 2007 and 2008, few seemed to notice at the time. More recently many grains and oilseed prices started major downtrends about four years ago but, again, weakness was ignored. Oddly, it was not until the last domino fell and the price of crude oil collapsed that pundits took notice. Roused from their analytical lethargy, some have concluded that commodity and raw material prices could emulate the 1980s and stay weak for years. They are very late and likely to be wrong.