In his more than four decades of successful financial management, Claude Lemire has seen it all; perhaps too much at times. Claude was a founder and later president of the very successful Canagex Placements, a $14 billion Montreal based money management firm that was later acquired.
Best “guessestimates” seem to point to an expenditure of over $5,000,000,000.00++ ( that’s (5) FIVE BILLION++$$$) by the various candidates seeking the Presidency of these United States of America and screams for the following comments and observations, not only from this observer but all Americans ( readers will certainly have many, many more of their own to add)
By Harold AGJ Davis 27 September 2015, Author and Analyst at www.prairiecropcharts.com A period of low cost commodities is not beginning, it is about to end. Although many commodity prices entered bear markets following major tops back in 2007 and 2008, few seemed to notice at the time. More recently many grains and oilseed prices started major downtrends about four years ago but, again, weakness was ignored. Oddly, it was not until the last domino fell and the price of crude oil collapsed that pundits took notice. Roused from their analytical lethargy, some have concluded that commodity and raw material prices could emulate the 1980s and stay weak for years. They are very late and likely to be wrong.
We received this email from a Quebec resident who resides in the Montreal area. We did not edit or add anything to his email. It certainly makes sense and we welcome comments. He is French Canadian but he recognizes that the majority of the readers are Anglophones and he politely has written it in English. He requested that his name not be given.
Qu’est-ce que tu en penses? La Fed sera-t-elle assez orgueilleuse et incompétente pour relever les taux le 17 septembre? ou annoncera-t-elle QE4? Ce qui serait équivalent à perdre la face? Imagine ce qui arrivera aux emprunts sur marge pour l’achat d’actions et d’obligations au lendemain du relèvement des taux. Avec un marché fragile comme c’est le cas actuellement, j’aime mieux ne pas y penser. Je crois, selon ce que je lis, que tous les investisseurs ont maintenant peur d’une hausse de taux et qu’il y a de fortes chances que la Fed les hausse quand même. Nous sommes à la merci d’une bande de fonctionnaires. Ray
We have avoided what would have been normal 20% or so corrections which would have been followed by the market returning up after each down move allowing funds and institutions the opportunity to invest at reasonable prices. We are now at historical valuation levels that have ALWAYS BEEN FOLLOWED BY HARSH BEAR MARKETS. We have no change in our outlook. Off the 2014-2015 stock market high we can still see a downside move risk for the overall stock market of 25% to 30% based upon technical and cyclical analysis. However, right from the start we want to point out that there numerous stocks that are incredibly undervalued that offer the opportunity for exceptional capital gains. For example, Gold, Silver and Commodities in our view are extremely undervalued.
About China’s Currency Devaluation: The Renminbi (also called the Yuan) is very different today than it was a generation ago. Twenty years ago, foreigners used special exchange certificates rather than local currency and only in selected stores, hotels and restaurants. Today, foreigners can use local currency at anytime and anywhere. Moreover, some 20% of China’s merchandise trade is settled with the Renminbi.
For some of us, cycles are more important than fundamentals for forecasting the direction of the markets, particularly for long term forecasts. And when cycles have a strong similarity and are concurrent with economic and business fundamentals, the cycles are even more effective in their ability to forecast. Many cycles occur often on or near to schedule.
With the bubble bursting in China as we speak…….(remember China is the world’s SECOND LARGEST ECONOMY)..Their markets are down over 30% (THAT’S THIRTY PERCENT) in spite of the Chinese government throwing everything INCLUDING the kitchen sink against this slide.
While our analysis suggests a decline possibility of 25% to 30%, there are some points that should be emphasized. Keep in mind that for a bull market in commodities that many of you readers anxiously await, we would need a bear market to occur in industrial stocks. Recently, the stock market is sending some strong technical warnings; the Dow Jones Transportation Average and the Dow Jones Utilities Average, both lead indicators have been quite weak for the last there months. As well, the last six weeks have seen some of the largest total dollar value of officers and directors selling in decades with little buying; their sales totaled over $2,500,000,000. ($2.5 billion) The negative evidence keeps building. Note well that officers and directors are the most informed of all investors. But for three years we have projected a 20% to 25% correction which did not happen! What we had wanted to see was a normal cyclical correction which allows the funds and institutions that must invest the opportunities to buy at cheaper price levels followed by rallies back up. As you know many funds are not allowed to hold large cash positions. It is a “must invest” requirement, despite overvaluation in many companies’ shares. This has created, as in all major market tops a “vacuum.” A vacuum is a way of describing the fact that far too many shares have been bought at the high end of their valuation levels and often at the high end […]
