Montreal Analyst

We have a “podcast” interview coming up with David Morgan who is in our view the most accurate silver analyst today.  We find it compelling that we are totally in accord with David’s forecasts and valuations for silver. We take no pleasure in having a negative outlook for the economy and the stock market but we are realists. We feel that we are about to commence very difficult times and do believe that silver bullion and many silver stocks will provide investors with outstanding returns. While our analysis is negative for the economy and the stock market in general, we still find that there are numerous stocks and investments that offer exceptional opportunities for substantial capital gains. What too few investors recognize is the fact that the stock market has been supported by artificially low interest rates and central bank intervention in the stock markets. The markets in general have exceeded historically reasonable gauges of proper value so the markets and many stocks excesses’ will soon be “modified.” In our opinion, time listening to the podcast interview will prove to be time well spent.  Do not look to Wall Street or the major brokerage houses for timely advice on commodities such as silver and gold.

Many investors are not paying attention to insider sales, they should! Last week we saw one of the largest amounts of insider (officers and directors) weekly sales of their very own personally owned shares; shares in the very companies where they work.  In the past, the selling in itself is not always a timely signal. However, from these very elevated selling levels, brutal bear markets have commenced in the past. We never have advised selling short, however our analysis suggests taking some profits off the table. The  total insider purchases last week totalled approximately $21,000,000 million in US Dollar value…….with insider selling totalling $567,000,000 in US dollar value last week, taking money off the table is something to consider.

    Most of us know the story of Colonel George Custer’s 7th Cavalry and how they were crushed by the alliance of Lakota Sioux, Cheyenne and Arapaho tribes led by Crazy Horse and Sitting Bull. Historians have said that Colonel Custer was warned several times of the size of the Indian alliance.  He had six Crow scouts, Whiteman Runs Him, Curley, Hairy Moccasin, Goes Ahead, Half Yellow Face and White Swan who warned Colonel Custer, but he paid little attention.

 I was recently speaking to a former Canadian professional hockey player about his mining company and the precious metals markets. After the standard company’s assets in the ground and cash position discussion, the conversation turned to business television. He told me that he had the pleasure of meeting with commentator, columnist and author Charles Krauthammer of Fox News at an investment conference. In our view, Charles Krauthammer is the most intelligent analyst and commentator on television so it came as no surprise that the retired hockey player felt the same way. He already knew that Charles was brilliant but what really surprised him was his knowledge of sports, particularly baseball. A little history here; Charles Krauthammer attended grammar school in Montreal and graduated from McGill University.  He later graduated from Harvard Medical School and is a licensed medical doctor. As well, he is bi-lingual. He is quite balanced in his views and generally speaking we find him to be absolutely correct approximately 99% of the time. Whether you are in Canada or the U.S., we suggest that investors pay close attention to his comments-he is that insightful and accurate.   Wayne Rogers is a regular panelist on Fox News Saturday morning “Cashin’ in” segment. You may recognize Wayne as a television (M*A*S*H*) and movie actor (“Cool Hand Luke”) with numerous television credits going back to the sixties. At the same time, he has been a successful investor and money manager for decades. What we find so appealing about Wayne is […]

Investors will find this book of great value. Experienced investors know that technical analysis coupled with fundamental analysis is vital to investment success. In our opinion, intensive fundamental analysis requires technical analysis for the critical timing in the buying and selling of stocks and commodities. Renowned technical analyst and celebrated author John Murphy outdoes himself in his latest book. It is exceptionally comprehensive, yet John puts it in very understandable terms for those not experienced in technical analysis. Money managers and full time professional  investors will find the book informative as well. 

                    *Our advice for a difficult stock market is to “insist on value.” *We want to emphasize that we are always invested in the markets and that the advantage we find in bear markets is that they give us the opportunity to invest in stocks when they are severely undervalued. To us, bear markets are “super sales” and we find many stocks that are undervalued-naturally they are not the prime choices of the esteemed U.S. brokerage industry.

The Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) convention was held last week in Toronto. Our comments from last week still stand and we still believe that we are soon commencing a positive cycle in gold and mining stocks. Our technical, cyclical and fundamental analyses suggest now is the “time” to be accumulating the gold stocks. Price weakness can be frustrating but what few consider is that it is an opportunity to invest when the mining stocks are “on sale.”

Last week one of the largest weekly “insiders” stock  sales by offcers and directors occurred. These most informed of all investors (they work at these companies) reported approximately $23,000,000 of purchases by the “insiders” but at the same time they reported an enormous $578,000,000 in sales of their own companies shares. Insiders have been selling very heavily over the last year and this level of selling generally occurs during periods when the stock market is making a major top. HOWEVER, we can find many stocks that are very undervalued and are being bought by their own officers and directors.

What is New on the Macro Level?  By Hubert Marleau The Fed Will Delay the Expected Interest Rate Liftoff to September 2015 The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)had a very lengthy debate on January 27-28 about its strategy and timing for raising its policy rate from the current 0.25% level. Put simply, the rate setters got cold feet and the sense of urgency wasn’t apparent. There are several factors that support this renewed cautious stance. Firstly, the sudden plunge in oil prices is keeping the inflation rate far away from the Fed’s target rate of 2.0%.