Montreal Analyst

   These are  my observations. I use no science, no sophisticated mathematic equations, no ratio formulas. They are just my opinions as a Trader. Current recap: Big Markets still bumping into new high territory. It’s a miracle, all things considered. Has nobody noticed the World is one big heated messe? (see what I did there?…look it up) The G-20 Power play is taking place in Hamburg Messe, represented by the greatest assortment of Bizarre leaders that Mis-fit Island would be classified as tier two, and a more appropriate locale to gather. Meanwhile a nutbar in North Korea plans his next missile launch. If you are a big picture looker, surely you can’t like what you see. The commodities Markets have been pounded relentlessly. The Central Banksters have been supporting the almighty greenback, at the expense of the gold Market. Quite simply, they sell (artificial) paper to drive down the price of gold, decreasing it’s value, similar to shorting a stock. Paper vs. Gold….my money is on the heavyweight.  It’s not easy to pick a bottom, but at any moment there is the potential to completely turn this scenario on it’s ass. Could a mis-guided missile be the pin that pricks the bubble? How about some lunatic taking a run at their current fearless leader. I don’t want any of these events to take place. I prefer World peace, but how do we get there? There may be a monumental event that takes us there. Let’s hope it’s not catastrophic. Eventually, […]

Our Montrealanalyst.com comment: “Wall Street On Parade” is a very informative site that brings out some very informative insights that too few people are aware of. “Why Wall Street Should Be Viewed as a Major National Threat”                                                                         By Pam Martens and Russ Martens,   The day before the 4th of July, when most Americans were hustling about preparing for family barbecues, the New York Times finally decided to publish an editorial warning about Wall Street’s potential threat to the nation. Unfortunately, it did so with the kind of timidity we see regularly from cowed or compromised Wall Street banking regulators. The editorial writers noted that: “It’s entirely possible that the system is more fragile than the Fed’s stress tests indicate,” and they called for “heightened vigilance of derivatives in particular” without providing any detailed data.  A more accurate assessment of the situation would have been this: There is only one industry in the United States that has twice in a period of less than 100 years brought about a devastating economic crisis in the country. Wild speculation coupled with poor regulation of mega Wall Street banks brought about the Great Depression in the 1930s, leading to massive job losses, bank failures, poverty and economic misery for tens of millions of innocent Americans. The precise […]

This is a “must invest “market? That is what we have today. The vast majority of the stock market’s volume is done by institutions and professional trading desks. They must participate and continue to invest despite overvalued prices. Yes, they must invest in order to compete.  If they do not perform to their clients’ satisfaction, the clients move their accounts to another money manager. Bottom line is that they cannot hold large cash positons and must invest …..despite very high prices. By avoiding what would be normal interim corrections of 15% to 25% over the last four years , the stock market has moved to a valuation level that every time in the past has been followed by a brutal bear market. The stock market is now carrying a value of approximately 140% of Gross Domestic Product….just as in 2000 and in 2007,  both times it led to brutal declines. Also,  the insider selling of the personal shares by the officers and directors (insiders) over the last year is near the highest selling rate in history. Last week saw over $428,000,000 of the officers and directors selling some of their personally owned shares in the companies where they work; it was nineteen times the amount the officers and directors bought of their own companies’ shares.  The world’s central banks have been buying stocks which until recently was not done. Since January 2017, they have bought approximately $1.3 TRILLION in publicly traded stocks. This is an enormous amount of buying power […]

Zerohedge.com is an excellent and informative site.

       UBS Financial Services has an excellent daily market commentary for clients with the views and outlook of long time New York Stock Exchange veteran Art Cashin. Last week Art included the opinions of Dr. Lacy Hunt and Brian Reynolds. We agree totally with every point they make. Art’s comments as follows: ” While not quite as incredible as the separate but simultaneous conception of Calculus by Isaac Newton and Gottfried Leibniz in the 17th century, I was amazed to see two parallel, virtually identical concepts of the basis for this 8 year rally from the Great Recession bottom in March of 2009.  These concepts come from Dr. Lacy Hunt and Brian Reynolds at New Albion Partners.  Dr. Hunt spoke at John Mauldin’s Strategic Investment Conference.  Luckily for us, the brilliant Steve Blumenthal participated in the conference and took copious notes of most of the presentations.  Here are Steve’s notes on Dr. Hunt’s segment on the stock rally. 

WE SAID IT HERE ON MAY 31 ON THIS SITE  “BLATANT MANIPULATION IN THE GOLD MARKET…EXPECT IT TO OCCUR AGAIN.”  AND IT CERTAINLY DID OCCUR AGAIN TODAY.

Blatant Manipulation in the Gold market…expect it to occur again.

The old age and the elevated valuation of stock market averages are causing concerns that the bull trend may be nearing its end and that a bad turn is imminent. While we recognize that skittishness can bring about market corrections when valuation metrics are ahead of themselves, secular bear trends are only firmly in place when recession risks are very high. Investors often misjudge what is going on. When the situation is too abstract, people tend to go along with the general consensus as it is socially acceptable and expected of them.

We cannot tell the future but we try anyway. It seems to us that the stock market is as vulnerable to a more than 20% downside as it has ever been. The true P/E ratios for some of the leading stocks are at nose bleed levels, insiders who as officers and directors are the most informed of all have been selling at one of the highest rates ever. Last week they sold $456 million of their own personally held shares. Moreover the value of all stocks is now minimally at approximately 126% of Gross Domestic Product which at these levels in the past has led to the most brutal of bear markets.